What the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread measures
This chart shows the difference, in percentage points, between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, averaged by month. A positive number means long-term rates are above short-term rates – the normal, upward-sloping yield curve. A negative number means the curve is inverted: investors accept less to lend for ten years than for two.
How to read this chart
Look for the times the line crosses below the dashed zero line, then look right: in most cases a grey recession band follows, typically 6 to 24 months later. The recession itself often starts after the curve has turned positive again (“un-inverted”), because the Fed is by then cutting short rates quickly. A deep, steep curve, by contrast, is common early in recoveries.
The latest reading in context
- At 0.39%, the latest reading is above its 5-year average of 0.04% and above its 10-year average of 0.34%.
- Of all 605 monthly readings since June 1976, 33% were lower than today’s and 67% were higher.
- Direction: up 0.05 points over the past month; down 0.13 points over the past six months; down 0.15 points over the past year.
- The highest value on record is 2.83% (February 2010, 16 years ago); the lowest is −2.14% (March 1980, 46 years ago).
- The full history spans 6 US recessions, shaded grey on the chart.
Why it matters
An inverted curve says the bond market expects short-term rates to fall, usually because it expects the economy to weaken. It also squeezes banks, which borrow short and lend long, so lending can tighten. That is why the spread is one of the most cited recession indicators; the New York Fed publishes a recession-probability model built on a similar spread.
What moves the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread
- Fed rate hikes push the 2-year yield up faster than the 10-year
- Growth and inflation expectations lift or lower the long end
- Flight-to-safety buying of long Treasuries flattens the curve
- Fed bond purchases or sales change the term premium
Key moments in its history
- 1978–1980Inverted ahead of the 1980 and 1981–82 recessions.
- 1989Briefly inverted before the 1990–91 recession.
- 2000Inverted before the 2001 recession.
- 2006–2007Inverted ahead of the Great Recession.
- 2022–2024The longest inversion in the series, reaching about −1 point in mid-2023.
Yield Curve (10Y − 2Y) data tables
Average by decade
| Decade | Average | High | Low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020s (so far) | 0.25% | 1.47% | −0.93% |
| 2010s | 1.44% | 2.83% | 0.05% |
| 2000s | 1.18% | 2.72% | −0.41% |
| 1990s | 0.87% | 2.52% | −0.04% |
| 1980s | 0.47% | 1.53% | −2.14% |
| 1970s | 0.30% | 1.49% | −1.19% |
Last 12 months
| Period | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | 0.39% | +0.05 pts |
| Sep 2026 | 0.34% | −0.13 pts |
| Aug 2026 | 0.47% | +0.09 pts |
| Jul 2026 | 0.38% | +0.02 pts |
| Jun 2026 | 0.36% | −0.13 pts |
| May 2026 | 0.49% | −0.03 pts |
| Apr 2026 | 0.52% | −0.01 pts |
| Mar 2026 | 0.53% | −0.12 pts |
| Feb 2026 | 0.65% | −0.03 pts |
| Jan 2026 | 0.68% | +0.04 pts |
| Dec 2025 | 0.64% | +0.10 pts |
| Nov 2025 | 0.54% | 0.00 pts |
Monthly values. Decade figures are averages of the monthly values in each decade. The complete history is available as a CSV file.
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Yield Curve (10Y − 2Y): questions and answers
What does an inverted yield curve mean?
Short-term interest rates are higher than long-term ones. It usually means investors expect the Fed to cut rates in the future because growth will slow.
Does an inversion always lead to a recession?
Not always, and the timing varies widely. Every US recession since the late 1970s came after an inversion, but there have been false or very early signals, and the lag has ranged from several months to about two years.
Why use 10-year minus 2-year instead of 10-year minus 3-month?
Both are common. The 10-year minus 2-year spread is the most quoted in markets; the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prefers the 10-year minus 3-month spread for its recession model. They usually invert at around the same time.
Where does the data on this chart come from?
From the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. ChartWidgets downloads the series (T10Y2Y) from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database, and checks for new releases every day. The last update was on November 1, 2026.