What the 10-year Treasury yield measures
The 10-year Treasury yield is the annual return an investor earns by buying a US government note that matures in ten years and holding it to the end. The Federal Reserve publishes it at constant maturity: a yield read off the Treasury yield curve for exactly ten years, so the series is comparable from day to day even as individual notes age. The chart averages the daily values for each month; the most recent month is the average of the days published so far.
How to read this chart
The long arc on the full-history view is the story of US inflation: a climb through the 1960s and 1970s to a peak in 1981, then a four-decade decline to record lows in 2020, followed by a sharp rebound. On shorter ranges, rising stretches usually mean investors expect stronger growth, higher inflation or more Treasury borrowing; falling stretches often coincide with recessions or market scares, when money moves into safe government debt.
The latest reading in context
- At 5.13%, the latest reading is above its 5-year average of 3.89% and above its 10-year average of 2.93%.
- Of all 778 monthly readings since January 1962, 48% were lower than today’s and 52% were higher.
- Direction: up 0.14 points over the past month; up 0.81 points over the past six months; up 1.07 points over the past year.
- The highest value on record is 15.32% (September 1981, 45 years ago); the lowest is 0.62% (July 2020, 6 years ago).
- The full history spans 8 US recessions, shaded grey on the chart.
Why it matters
This is the most watched interest rate in the world. Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates typically run 1.5 to 3 points above it, corporate bonds are priced as a spread over it, and analysts use it as the “risk-free rate” when they discount future company earnings – so a higher 10-year yield tends to weigh on stock valuations, especially for fast-growing companies whose profits lie far in the future.
What moves the 10-year Treasury yield
- Expected inflation over the next decade
- The expected path of the federal funds rate
- The term premium: extra return investors demand for locking money up for ten years
- Federal budget deficits and the supply of new Treasury debt
- Foreign demand and flight-to-safety flows during crises
Key moments in its history
- Sep 1981Peaked at nearly 16% on a daily basis as inflation and Fed rates hit records.
- 1990s–2000sA long decline as inflation settled near 2–3%.
- Jul–Aug 2020Fell to all-time lows near 0.6% during the pandemic.
- Oct 2023Touched 5% for the first time since 2007.
10-Year Treasury Yield data tables
Average by decade
| Decade | Average | High | Low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020s (so far) | 3.15% | 5.13% | 0.62% |
| 2010s | 2.41% | 3.85% | 1.50% |
| 2000s | 4.46% | 6.66% | 2.42% |
| 1990s | 6.66% | 8.89% | 4.53% |
| 1980s | 10.60% | 15.32% | 7.08% |
| 1970s | 7.50% | 10.65% | 5.70% |
| 1960s | 4.84% | 7.65% | 3.83% |
Last 12 months
| Period | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | 5.13% | +0.14 pts |
| Sep 2026 | 4.99% | +0.31 pts |
| Aug 2026 | 4.68% | +0.08 pts |
| Jul 2026 | 4.60% | +0.13 pts |
| Jun 2026 | 4.47% | −0.01 pts |
| May 2026 | 4.48% | +0.16 pts |
| Apr 2026 | 4.32% | +0.07 pts |
| Mar 2026 | 4.25% | +0.12 pts |
| Feb 2026 | 4.13% | −0.08 pts |
| Jan 2026 | 4.21% | +0.07 pts |
| Dec 2025 | 4.14% | +0.05 pts |
| Nov 2025 | 4.09% | +0.03 pts |
Monthly values. Decade figures are averages of the monthly values in each decade. The complete history is available as a CSV file.
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10-Year Treasury Yield: questions and answers
Why do bond yields rise when prices fall?
A Treasury note pays a fixed coupon. If its market price drops, a buyer receives the same coupons for less money, so the return – the yield – is higher. Yield and price always move in opposite directions.
How is the 10-year yield related to mortgage rates?
Most mortgages are repaid or refinanced within about ten years, so lenders and mortgage-bond investors price 30-year fixed loans off the 10-year Treasury yield plus a spread for credit and prepayment risk.
What is a normal 10-year yield?
There is no fixed normal. Since 1962 it has averaged roughly 6%, but that includes the high-inflation 1970s and 1980s. From 2009 to 2021 it mostly stayed between 1.5% and 3%.
Where does the data on this chart come from?
From the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. ChartWidgets downloads the series (DGS10) from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database, and checks for new releases every day. The last update was on November 4, 2026.