What the 10-year real interest rate measures
A real interest rate is the return on money after inflation. This chart uses the market’s own measure: the yield on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), whose principal rises with the consumer price index. A TIPS yield of 2% means an investor locks in 2% a year on top of whatever inflation turns out to be. The Federal Reserve publishes it at constant maturity; the chart shows monthly averages from 2003.
How to read this chart
When the line is below zero, investors were willing to lose purchasing power to own safe government bonds – a sign of very easy monetary policy and heavy demand for safety. Rising real yields mean financial conditions are tightening even if inflation is unchanged. Comparing this chart with the 10-year Treasury yield shows how much of a move in rates came from real yields versus inflation expectations.
The latest reading in context
- At 2.78%, the latest reading is above its 5-year average of 1.53% and above its 10-year average of 0.81%.
- That is higher than 99% of all monthly readings since January 2003 – near the top of its historical range.
- Direction: up 0.14 points over the past month; up 0.84 points over the past six months; up 1.02 points over the past year.
- The highest value on record is 2.89% (November 2008, 18 years ago); the lowest is −1.07% (August 2021, 5 years ago).
- The full history spans 2 US recessions, shaded grey on the chart.
Why it matters
Economists see the real rate as the true price of money. It drives the trade-off between saving and spending, the value of long-lived assets such as stocks, real estate and gold, and the strength of the dollar. Gold in particular has tended to move opposite to real yields, because it pays no income.
What moves the 10-year real interest rate
- Fed policy and its bond holdings
- Expected real economic growth
- Global demand for safe assets
- Liquidity in the TIPS market during crises
Key moments in its history
- 2008Jumped briefly above 3% as investors sold TIPS in the financial crisis.
- 2012–2013Below zero during the Fed’s bond-buying programs.
- 2020–2021Fell to around −1%, the lowest on record.
- Oct 2023Reached about 2.5%, the highest since 2008.
Real Interest Rate (10-Year TIPS) data tables
Average by decade
| Decade | Average | High | Low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020s (so far) | 0.93% | 2.78% | −1.07% |
| 2010s | 0.42% | 1.51% | −0.77% |
| 2000s | 1.96% | 2.89% | 1.09% |
Last 12 months
| Period | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | 2.78% | +0.14 pts |
| Sep 2026 | 2.64% | +0.24 pts |
| Aug 2026 | 2.40% | +0.05 pts |
| Jul 2026 | 2.35% | +0.17 pts |
| Jun 2026 | 2.18% | +0.14 pts |
| May 2026 | 2.04% | +0.10 pts |
| Apr 2026 | 1.94% | +0.03 pts |
| Mar 2026 | 1.91% | +0.09 pts |
| Feb 2026 | 1.82% | −0.09 pts |
| Jan 2026 | 1.91% | +0.01 pts |
| Dec 2025 | 1.90% | +0.07 pts |
| Nov 2025 | 1.83% | +0.07 pts |
Monthly values. Decade figures are averages of the monthly values in each decade. The complete history is available as a CSV file.
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Real Interest Rate (10-Year TIPS): questions and answers
What is a real interest rate?
It is an interest rate after subtracting inflation. If a bond yields 5% and inflation is 3%, the real return is roughly 2%.
How can a real interest rate be negative?
When inflation-protected bonds are in such demand that investors accept a yield below zero. They still receive inflation adjustments, but they lose a little purchasing power each year.
Why does this chart start in 2003?
The Federal Reserve’s constant-maturity series for 10-year TIPS begins in January 2003. TIPS themselves were first issued in 1997.
Where does the data on this chart come from?
From the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. ChartWidgets downloads the series (DFII10) from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database, and checks for new releases every day. The last update was on November 4, 2026.