About jobs and growth indicators
The labor market is the heart of the economy. The unemployment rate and monthly job growth come from the jobs report released on the first Friday of most months, along with average hourly earnings that show how fast pay is rising. The broader U-6 rate adds people working part time who want more hours and those who have stopped looking. Weekly initial jobless claims show layoffs in close to real time. The JOLTS survey adds job openings, the quits rate – a gauge of worker confidence – and the layoffs rate, while the labor force participation rate shows how many adults are working or looking.
Output is measured most broadly by real GDP, published quarterly. Monthly indicators fill in the picture sooner: retail sales for consumer spending and industrial production for factories, mines and utilities. The personal saving rate shows how much income households set aside, and the misery index combines unemployment and inflation. Two charts focus on recessions: the Sahm rule turns the unemployment rate into a real-time signal, and the recession probability uses the yield curve to estimate the odds a year ahead.
Quick reading tips
- Industrial production and the yield curve often turn before a recession.
- The unemployment rate usually rises fastest at the start of recessions.
- Compare wage growth with inflation to see whether real pay is rising.