What the US real GDP growth rate measures
Gross domestic product is the total value of goods and services produced in the United States. Each bar is the quarter-over-quarter growth of real (inflation-adjusted) GDP, scaled up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate – the pace the economy would grow over a full year if that quarter’s growth continued. The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes an advance estimate about a month after each quarter ends, then revises it twice.
How to read this chart
Bars above zero are expanding quarters, bars below zero shrinking ones. Typical healthy growth for the US is about 2–3%. Because the figures are annualized, a quarter’s bar is roughly four times the actual quarter-on-quarter change – which is why the pandemic quarters of 2020 show swings of around −28% and +35%.
The latest reading in context
- At 3.4%, the latest reading is above its 5-year average of 2.6% and above its 10-year average of 2.8%.
- Of all 318 quarterly readings since Q2 1947, 54% were lower than today’s and 44% were higher.
- Direction: up 1.2 points over the past quarter; up 0.9 points over the past six months; down 0.5 points over the past year.
- The highest value on record is 34.9% (Q3 2020, 6 years ago); the lowest is −28.0% (Q2 2020, 6 years ago).
- The full history spans 12 US recessions, shaded grey on the chart.
Why it matters
GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity, used to judge whether the economy is expanding, overheating or contracting. Corporate profits, tax revenue, employment and interest-rate policy all track it. Two negative quarters in a row are a popular rule of thumb for a recession, although official US recession dates are set by the National Bureau of Economic Research using a wider range of data.
What moves the US real GDP growth rate
- Consumer spending, about two-thirds of GDP
- Business investment in equipment, software and buildings
- Government spending
- Net exports and changes in inventories, which swing quarterly numbers
Key moments in its history
- 1950sFrequent double-digit quarters in the post-war boom.
- 1981–1982A deep double-dip recession.
- Q4 2008Contracted at an annual rate of more than 8%.
- Q2–Q3 2020The largest drop and the largest rebound on record.
US GDP Growth data tables
Average by decade
| Decade | Average | High | Low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020s (so far) | 2.8% | 34.9% | −28.0% |
| 2010s | 2.4% | 5.3% | −1.4% |
| 2000s | 1.8% | 7.5% | −8.5% |
| 1990s | 3.4% | 6.8% | −3.6% |
| 1980s | 3.2% | 9.4% | −8.0% |
| 1970s | 3.4% | 16.4% | −4.8% |
| 1960s | 4.5% | 10.1% | −5.0% |
| 1950s | 4.5% | 16.7% | −10.0% |
| 1940s | 1.3% | 6.8% | −5.4% |
Last 12 quarters
| Period | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.4% | +1.2 pts |
| Q2 2026 | 2.2% | −0.3 pts |
| Q1 2026 | 2.5% | +2.3 pts |
| Q4 2025 | 0.2% | −3.7 pts |
| Q3 2025 | 3.9% | −0.1 pts |
| Q2 2025 | 4.0% | +3.9 pts |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1% | −2.3 pts |
| Q4 2024 | 2.4% | −0.8 pts |
| Q3 2024 | 3.2% | −0.4 pts |
| Q2 2024 | 3.6% | +2.2 pts |
| Q1 2024 | 1.4% | −2.2 pts |
| Q4 2023 | 3.6% | −0.9 pts |
Quarterly values. Decade figures are averages of the quarterly values in each decade. The complete history is available as a CSV file.
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US GDP Growth: questions and answers
What does an annualized GDP growth rate mean?
It compounds one quarter’s growth over four quarters. A 0.5% rise from one quarter to the next is reported as about 2% annualized.
What is real GDP?
GDP adjusted for inflation, so it measures changes in the quantity of goods and services produced rather than changes in their prices.
Is two quarters of negative GDP a recession?
It is a common rule of thumb, not the official definition. In the US the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee decides, looking at employment, income, spending and production as well as GDP.
Where does the data on this chart come from?
From the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. ChartWidgets downloads the series (A191RL1Q225SBEA) from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database, and checks for new releases every day. The last update was on November 1, 2026.