What the 2-year Treasury yield measures
This chart follows what the US government pays to borrow for two years: the yield on Treasury notes due in two years, measured at constant maturity from the Treasury yield curve and averaged here by month. Because two years is a short horizon, the yield is driven almost entirely by what investors expect the Federal Reserve to do with short-term rates over that period, plus a small premium.
How to read this chart
The line usually turns before the fed funds rate does: it rises as markets start to price in rate hikes and falls when they anticipate cuts, often months before the Fed acts. Compare it with the 10-year yield – when the 2-year line is above the 10-year, the yield curve is inverted, a pattern that has preceded most recessions shown by the grey bands.
The latest reading in context
- At 4.74%, the latest reading is above its 5-year average of 3.84% and above its 10-year average of 2.59%.
- Of all 605 monthly readings since June 1976, 52% were lower than today’s and 48% were higher.
- Direction: up 0.09 points over the past month; up 0.94 points over the past six months; up 1.22 points over the past year.
- The highest value on record is 16.46% (September 1981, 45 years ago); the lowest is 0.12% (February 2021, 5 years ago).
- The full history spans 6 US recessions, shaded grey on the chart.
Why it matters
Traders, economists and the Fed itself watch the 2-year yield as a real-time read on monetary-policy expectations. It also sets the cost of short-term borrowing for companies and the yield on two-year CDs and short-term bond funds, and it is one leg of the most cited yield-curve measure, the 10-year minus 2-year spread.
What moves the 2-year Treasury yield
- Expected FOMC rate decisions over the next two years
- Inflation and jobs reports that change those expectations
- Fed communication: speeches, statements and the dot plot
- Flight to safety in market crises
Key moments in its history
- 1980–1981Topped 16% as the Fed pushed short rates to records.
- 2011–2015Stuck near 0.2–0.7% while the Fed kept rates at zero and promised to hold them there.
- 2022Rose more than 4 points in a year – one of the fastest climbs on record.
- Jul 2022–Aug 2024Stayed above the 10-year yield in the longest inversion in the series.
2-Year Treasury Yield data tables
Average by decade
| Decade | Average | High | Low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020s (so far) | 2.90% | 5.07% | 0.12% |
| 2010s | 0.96% | 2.86% | 0.21% |
| 2000s | 3.27% | 6.81% | 0.80% |
| 1990s | 5.79% | 8.72% | 3.84% |
| 1980s | 10.12% | 16.46% | 6.23% |
| 1970s | 7.98% | 11.81% | 5.38% |
Last 12 months
| Period | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | 4.74% | +0.09 pts |
| Sep 2026 | 4.65% | +0.43 pts |
| Aug 2026 | 4.22% | 0.00 pts |
| Jul 2026 | 4.22% | +0.11 pts |
| Jun 2026 | 4.11% | +0.11 pts |
| May 2026 | 4.00% | +0.20 pts |
| Apr 2026 | 3.80% | +0.09 pts |
| Mar 2026 | 3.71% | +0.24 pts |
| Feb 2026 | 3.47% | −0.07 pts |
| Jan 2026 | 3.54% | +0.04 pts |
| Dec 2025 | 3.50% | −0.05 pts |
| Nov 2025 | 3.55% | +0.03 pts |
Monthly values. Decade figures are averages of the monthly values in each decade. The complete history is available as a CSV file.
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2-Year Treasury Yield: questions and answers
Why does the 2-year yield matter so much?
It is the cleanest market forecast of Federal Reserve policy. When it moves sharply after an economic report, it shows that investors changed their view of future rate hikes or cuts.
What does it mean when the 2-year yield is above the 10-year?
The yield curve is inverted. Investors expect short-term rates to fall in the future, often because they expect the economy to weaken and the Fed to cut.
Is the 2-year yield the same as a 2-year CD rate?
No, but they are close cousins. Banks set CD rates by looking at Treasury yields of similar maturity and their own need for deposits, so CD rates usually move in the same direction.
Where does the data on this chart come from?
From the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. ChartWidgets downloads the series (DGS2) from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database, and checks for new releases every day. The last update was on November 4, 2026.