What the 1-year Treasury yield measures
The 1-year Treasury yield is the return on US government debt that matures in one year, as a constant-maturity yield from the Federal Reserve, averaged over each month. In effect it is the market’s forecast of the average federal funds rate over the coming year plus a small premium.
How to read this chart
The line tracks the fed funds rate closely but moves first: it climbs when traders expect rate hikes over the next twelve months and drops below the fed funds rate when they expect cuts. A 1-year yield well under the current policy rate is a market bet that easing is coming.
The latest reading in context
- At 4.46%, the latest reading is above its 5-year average of 3.95% and above its 10-year average of 2.59%.
- Of all 778 monthly readings since January 1962, 45% were lower than today’s and 55% were higher.
- Direction: up 0.09 points over the past month; up 0.77 points over the past six months; up 0.85 points over the past year.
- The highest value on record is 16.72% (August 1981, 45 years ago); the lowest is 0.05% (May 2021, 5 years ago).
- The full history spans 8 US recessions, shaded grey on the chart.
Why it matters
One-year rates set the return on one-year CDs and Treasury bills held by savers, and the 1-year Treasury was long the index for adjustable-rate mortgages. It is also a clean read of near-term Fed expectations, largely free of the inflation and term premiums in longer yields.
What moves the 1-year Treasury yield
- Expected federal funds rate over the next 12 months
- Inflation data and Fed communication
- Demand for safe short-term assets
- Treasury bill supply
Key moments in its history
- 1981Above 16% at the peak of the Volcker rate hikes.
- 2009–2015Close to zero for about seven years after the financial crisis.
- 2020–2021Back near zero during the pandemic.
- 2023Above 5% while the Fed held its policy rate at a 22-year high.
1-Year Treasury Yield data tables
Average by decade
| Decade | Average | High | Low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020s (so far) | 2.96% | 5.44% | 0.05% |
| 2010s | 0.74% | 2.70% | 0.10% |
| 2000s | 3.01% | 6.33% | 0.31% |
| 1990s | 5.36% | 8.40% | 3.18% |
| 1980s | 9.74% | 16.72% | 5.72% |
| 1970s | 7.00% | 12.44% | 3.69% |
| 1960s | 4.67% | 8.17% | 2.98% |
Last 12 months
| Period | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | 4.46% | +0.09 pts |
| Sep 2026 | 4.37% | +0.34 pts |
| Aug 2026 | 4.03% | −0.02 pts |
| Jul 2026 | 4.05% | +0.14 pts |
| Jun 2026 | 3.91% | +0.12 pts |
| May 2026 | 3.79% | +0.10 pts |
| Apr 2026 | 3.69% | +0.02 pts |
| Mar 2026 | 3.67% | +0.19 pts |
| Feb 2026 | 3.48% | −0.03 pts |
| Jan 2026 | 3.51% | −0.03 pts |
| Dec 2025 | 3.54% | −0.12 pts |
| Nov 2025 | 3.66% | +0.05 pts |
Monthly values. Decade figures are averages of the monthly values in each decade. The complete history is available as a CSV file.
Use this chart on your website
Set the options, check the preview, then copy the code into any HTML page, blog post or sidebar. There is nothing to install and no account to create; the chart refreshes itself when new data is published.
Preview
Free for personal and commercial sites. The only condition: leave the two credit links in the code visible. Every setting is explained on the Embed page, where you can also pick any of our charts.
1-Year Treasury Yield: questions and answers
How is the 1-year Treasury yield different from the fed funds rate?
The fed funds rate is an overnight rate set by Fed policy. The 1-year yield is a market rate that reflects where investors expect the fed funds rate to average over the next year.
Do adjustable-rate mortgages still use the 1-year Treasury?
Some older ones do. Most new adjustable-rate mortgages are indexed to SOFR, the overnight rate that replaced LIBOR.
Where does the data on this chart come from?
From the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. ChartWidgets downloads the series (DGS1) from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database, and checks for new releases every day. The last update was on November 4, 2026.