What the US misery index measures
The misery index adds two numbers that hurt households: the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. It was popularized by economist Arthur Okun in the 1960s. This chart calculates it each month as the BLS unemployment rate plus the 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index.
How to read this chart
A high reading can come from either side – mass unemployment, as in 2020, or high inflation, as in 2022 – or from both together, as in the stagflation of the 1970s and early 1980s, when the index was at its worst. Readings in the single digits indicate an economy with both low inflation and plenty of jobs.
The latest reading in context
- At 7.9%, the latest reading is below its 5-year average of 8.4% and above its 10-year average of 7.8%.
- Of all 944 monthly readings since January 1948, 43% were lower than today’s and 57% were higher.
- Direction: up 0.4 points over the past month; up 0.4 points over the past six months; up 0.5 points over the past year.
- The highest value on record is 22.0% (June 1980, 46 years ago); the lowest is 3.0% (July 1953, 73 years ago).
- The full history spans 12 US recessions, shaded grey on the chart.
Why it matters
The index is a simple shorthand used in politics and the media to compare economic conditions across presidencies and decades. It ignores growth, income and inequality and gives equal weight to each point of unemployment and inflation, so economists treat it as a talking point rather than a policy guide.
What moves the US misery index
- Everything that moves the unemployment rate
- Everything that moves CPI inflation
- Supply shocks that raise both at once (stagflation)
Key moments in its history
- 1975Above 17% as an oil shock and recession hit together.
- 1980Peaked near 22%, the record.
- Late 1990sFell to about 6–7% with low inflation and low unemployment.
- 2020–2022Rose first on unemployment, then on inflation.
Misery Index data tables
Average by decade
| Decade | Average | High | Low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020s (so far) | 8.7% | 15.1% | 5.8% |
| 2010s | 8.0% | 12.9% | 5.0% |
| 2000s | 8.1% | 12.6% | 5.7% |
| 1990s | 8.8% | 12.5% | 5.7% |
| 1980s | 12.8% | 22.0% | 7.7% |
| 1970s | 13.3% | 19.9% | 8.4% |
| 1960s | 7.1% | 9.7% | 5.7% |
| 1950s | 6.6% | 12.8% | 3.0% |
| 1940s | 8.3% | 13.6% | 3.8% |
Last 12 months
| Period | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 7.9% | +0.4 pts |
| Aug 2026 | 7.5% | 0.0 pts |
| Jul 2026 | 7.5% | −0.3 pts |
| Jun 2026 | 7.7% | −0.8 pts |
| May 2026 | 8.5% | +0.4 pts |
| Apr 2026 | 8.1% | +0.6 pts |
| Mar 2026 | 7.6% | +0.7 pts |
| Feb 2026 | 6.8% | +0.1 pts |
| Jan 2026 | 6.7% | −0.4 pts |
| Dec 2025 | 7.1% | −0.2 pts |
| Nov 2025 | 7.2% | |
| Oct 2025 | n/a | not published |
Monthly values. Decade figures are averages of the monthly values in each decade. The complete history is available as a CSV file.
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Misery Index: questions and answers
Who invented the misery index?
Economist Arthur Okun, an adviser to President Lyndon Johnson, devised it in the 1960s. It became widely known during the 1976 and 1980 presidential campaigns.
What is a good misery index?
Below about 7–8 is historically favorable, implying unemployment around 4% and inflation around 2–3%.
Are there other versions?
Yes. Some versions add interest rates or subtract GDP growth, such as the index proposed by Robert Barro. This chart uses the original two components.
Where does the data on this chart come from?
From the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. ChartWidgets downloads the series (UNRATE, CPIAUCNS) from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database, and checks for new releases every day. The last update was on November 1, 2026.