What the US industrial production growth measures
The Federal Reserve’s industrial production index measures the real output of US manufacturing, mining (including oil and gas drilling) and electric and gas utilities. This chart shows its 12-month percentage change. The index dates back to 1919, which makes this one of the longest monthly records of the US business cycle.
How to read this chart
Industrial output is far more cyclical than the economy as a whole, so its swings are large: falls of 10–20% in deep recessions and rebounds of similar size. Readings slightly below zero outside recessions are common – manufacturing has had several mini-downturns, such as 2015–2016 when an oil price collapse hit drilling.
The latest reading in context
- At 2.2%, the latest reading is above its 5-year average of 0.8% and above its 10-year average of 0.4%.
- Of all 1281 monthly readings since January 1920, 43% were lower than today’s and 57% were higher.
- Direction: up 0.6 points over the past month; up 1.6 points over the past six months; up 0.4 points over the past year.
- The highest value on record is 62.0% (July 1933, 93 years ago); the lowest is −33.7% (February 1946, 80 years ago).
- The full history spans 18 US recessions, shaded grey on the chart.
Why it matters
Although industry is now well under a fifth of US GDP, it is where recessions often show up first, and it is closely tied to business investment, trade and commodity prices. Economists also watch the related capacity utilization rate as a measure of slack in industry.
What moves the US industrial production growth
- Demand for durable goods such as cars, machinery and appliances
- Energy prices and drilling activity
- Weather, which swings utility output
- The dollar and global demand for US exports
Key moments in its history
- 1920s–1940sExtreme swings in the Depression and World War II.
- 1975 and 1982Double-digit declines in oil-shock recessions.
- 2009Output fell about 15% from a year earlier.
- Apr 2020Dropped roughly 16–17% year over year.
Industrial Production Growth data tables
Average by decade
| Decade | Average | High | Low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020s (so far) | 0.1% | 16.6% | −17.3% |
| 2010s | 1.7% | 8.6% | −4.5% |
| 2000s | −0.1% | 4.8% | −15.3% |
| 1990s | 3.8% | 8.7% | −3.6% |
| 1980s | 1.9% | 12.2% | −7.1% |
| 1970s | 3.1% | 11.6% | −12.4% |
| 1960s | 5.6% | 13.4% | −8.5% |
| 1950s | 5.6% | 27.8% | −12.3% |
| 1940s | 7.2% | 31.7% | −33.7% |
| 1930s | 2.3% | 62.0% | −32.5% |
| 1920s | 5.6% | 42.6% | −31.2% |
Last 12 months
| Period | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 2.2% | +0.6 pts |
| Aug 2026 | 1.6% | +0.3 pts |
| Jul 2026 | 1.3% | −0.2 pts |
| Jun 2026 | 1.5% | −0.3 pts |
| May 2026 | 1.7% | +0.3 pts |
| Apr 2026 | 1.4% | +0.7 pts |
| Mar 2026 | 0.7% | −0.1 pts |
| Feb 2026 | 0.8% | −0.2 pts |
| Jan 2026 | 1.0% | −0.2 pts |
| Dec 2025 | 1.2% | −0.6 pts |
| Nov 2025 | 1.8% | 0.0 pts |
| Oct 2025 | 1.8% | −0.1 pts |
Monthly values. Decade figures are averages of the monthly values in each decade. The complete history is available as a CSV file.
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Industrial Production Growth: questions and answers
What does industrial production include?
Manufacturing (about three-quarters of the index), mining including oil and gas extraction, and electric and gas utilities. It does not include construction or services.
Who publishes the industrial production index?
The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, around the middle of each month.
Is industrial production adjusted for inflation?
Yes. It is an index of physical output volumes, not dollar sales.
Where does the data on this chart come from?
From the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. ChartWidgets downloads the series (INDPRO) from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database, and checks for new releases every day. The last update was on November 1, 2026.