What the US retail sales growth measures
The Census Bureau’s monthly retail survey estimates retail and food services sales; this chart shows how much they grew over twelve months. It covers store and online sales of goods, car dealers, gas stations and restaurants and bars, adjusted for seasonal patterns. Sales are measured in dollars, so they are not adjusted for inflation.
How to read this chart
Because the figures are in current dollars, compare them with the inflation rate: 5% sales growth with 4% inflation means little real gain in volume. Base effects can be huge – the collapse in spring 2020 was followed by gains of around 50% a year later simply because the comparison month was so weak.
The latest reading in context
- At 6.3%, the latest reading is above its 5-year average of 4.5% and above its 10-year average of 5.1%.
- Of all 405 monthly readings since January 1993, 72% were lower than today’s and 28% were higher.
- Direction: up 0.7 points over the past month; up 2.7 points over the past six months; up 2.6 points over the past year.
- The highest value on record is 51.5% (April 2021, 5 years ago); the lowest is −19.5% (April 2020, 6 years ago).
- The full history spans 3 US recessions, shaded grey on the chart.
Why it matters
Consumer spending is about two-thirds of the US economy, and retail sales are one of the earliest monthly signals of it, released about two weeks after the month ends. Strong sales point to healthy household finances; outright declines in real terms often accompany recessions.
What moves the US retail sales growth
- Income and employment growth
- Inflation, which raises dollar sales even if volumes are flat
- Gasoline prices
- Stimulus payments, tax refunds and credit availability
Key moments in its history
- 2009Fell more than 10% from a year earlier in the financial crisis.
- Apr 2020Dropped by roughly a fifth year over year during lockdowns.
- Spring 2021Rose about 50% year over year on stimulus and base effects.
Retail Sales Growth data tables
Average by decade
| Decade | Average | High | Low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020s (so far) | 5.7% | 51.5% | −19.5% |
| 2010s | 4.3% | 8.4% | 1.3% |
| 2000s | 3.0% | 9.9% | −11.6% |
| 1990s | 6.4% | 11.4% | 2.6% |
Last 12 months
| Period | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 6.3% | +0.7 pts |
| Aug 2026 | 5.6% | +1.0 pts |
| Jul 2026 | 4.5% | −1.4 pts |
| Jun 2026 | 5.9% | −0.8 pts |
| May 2026 | 6.7% | +2.6 pts |
| Apr 2026 | 4.1% | +0.5 pts |
| Mar 2026 | 3.6% | +0.1 pts |
| Feb 2026 | 3.5% | +1.4 pts |
| Jan 2026 | 2.2% | +0.1 pts |
| Dec 2025 | 2.1% | −0.8 pts |
| Nov 2025 | 2.9% | +0.1 pts |
| Oct 2025 | 2.8% | −0.9 pts |
Monthly values. Decade figures are averages of the monthly values in each decade. The complete history is available as a CSV file.
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Retail Sales Growth: questions and answers
Are retail sales adjusted for inflation?
No. The Census Bureau reports nominal dollar sales. To estimate real growth, subtract an inflation measure such as the CPI for goods.
What is included in retail sales?
Sales at retailers of all kinds – including online stores, car dealers and gas stations – plus restaurants and bars. Most services, such as rent, medical care and travel, are not included.
Why is it called “advance”?
The first estimate is based on a smaller sample and published quickly; it is revised in the following months as more data come in.
Where does the data on this chart come from?
From the U.S. Census Bureau. ChartWidgets downloads the series (RSAFS) from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database, and checks for new releases every day. The last update was on November 1, 2026.