Definition
The misery index adds two numbers that hurt households directly: the unemployment rate, which measures how hard it is to find work, and the inflation rate, which measures how fast paychecks lose value. It was popularized by economist Arthur Okun in the 1960s and 1970s and became a political talking point: Jimmy Carter used it against Gerald Ford in 1976, and Ronald Reagan used it against Carter in 1980, when it was at its record high.
How it works
Misery index = unemployment rate + CPI inflation rate (12-month change)
This chart adds the monthly unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) to the 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index for the same month. Both inputs are percentages, so the sum is usually written as a percentage too, though it is really just an index number. Some versions add interest rates or GDP growth; the classic version uses only these two.
Example
In June 1980 unemployment was 7.6% and inflation 14.4%: a misery index near 22. In April 2020 unemployment jumped to 14.8% while inflation was only 0.3%, giving about 15 – a very different kind of misery, concentrated on those who lost jobs. In June 2022 unemployment was a low 3.6%, but inflation of 9.1% pushed the index to about 12.7.
Misery index in history
Readings at turning points, taken from the same data as the chart above.
| Date | Misery index | Jobless rate | Inflation | What was happening |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1953 | 3.0% | 2.6% | 0.4% | Record low: unemployment under 3% and almost no inflation. |
| Dec 1974 | 19.5% | 7.2% | 12.3% | Stagflation after the first oil shock. |
| Jun 1980 | 22.0% | 7.6% | 14.4% | Record high, during the 1980 election year. |
| Apr 1999 | 6.6% | 4.3% | 2.3% | Late-1990s boom: low unemployment and low inflation. |
| Oct 2009 | 9.8% | 10.0% | −0.2% | Great Recession: unemployment at 10%, inflation near zero. |
| Apr 2020 | 15.1% | 14.8% | 0.3% | Pandemic job losses. |
| Jun 2022 | 12.7% | 3.6% | 9.1% | Inflation, not unemployment, drives the index up. |
| Sep 2026 | 7.9% | 4.2% | 3.7% | Latest reading. |
Monthly values. Explore every month on the Misery Index chart.
Common mistakes
- “The same number means the same pain.” A reading of 10 made of 9% unemployment and 1% inflation affects people very differently from one made of 3% unemployment and 7% inflation.
- Reading it as a precise measure It weights a point of unemployment and a point of inflation equally. Surveys suggest people dislike unemployment considerably more.
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Misery index: questions and answers
What is a normal misery index?
Over the long run it has averaged a little under 10. Readings below about 7 are low; readings above 15 occurred only from the mid-1970s to the early 1980s and briefly in 2020.
Is the misery index an official statistic?
No. Government agencies publish the two inputs; the sum is a calculation made by analysts and sites like this one.