What the shelter inflation rate measures
Shelter is the largest single piece of the Consumer Price Index, about a third of the whole basket and more than 40% of core CPI. It is mostly two estimates: rent of primary residence, what tenants pay, and owners’ equivalent rent, what homeowners would pay to rent their own home. Hotels and other lodging away from home make up the rest. The chart shows the 12-month change in the index, not seasonally adjusted. Home purchase prices and mortgage rates are not included: the CPI treats a house as an investment and prices only the housing service it provides.
How to read this chart
Shelter inflation moves in slow, wide waves. Rents in the CPI are sampled from existing leases, which renew about once a year, so the index follows asking rents for new leases with a delay of roughly a year. That is why shelter kept climbing well into 2023 after market rents had already flattened, and why it is a good guide to where core inflation is heading but a poor guide to what is happening in the rental market today.
The latest reading in context
- At 3.2%, the latest reading is below its 5-year average of 5.1% and below its 10-year average of 4.1%.
- Of all 873 monthly readings since December 1953, 46% were lower than today’s and 54% were higher.
- Direction: up 0.2 points over the past month; up 0.2 points over the past six months; down 0.4 points over the past year.
- The highest value on record is 20.9% (June 1980, 46 years ago); the lowest is −0.7% (April 2010, 16 years ago).
- The full history spans 11 US recessions, shaded grey on the chart.
Why it matters
Because shelter is so heavy in the index, a one-point change in shelter inflation moves headline CPI by about a third of a point. It was the single biggest reason core inflation stayed above the Fed’s target after goods prices cooled in 2023. For households, shelter is also the largest monthly bill, so it shapes how affordable life feels far more than most other prices.
What moves the shelter inflation rate
- Market rents on new leases, which lead the CPI by about a year
- The rental vacancy rate and the pace of new apartment construction
- Household formation and migration between cities
- Home prices and mortgage rates, which decide whether people rent or buy
Key moments in its history
- 1970s–1980Rose at double-digit rates during the Great Inflation.
- 2010Fell below zero for the first time after the housing bust.
- Mar 2023Peaked at 8.2%, the highest since 1982.
- 2024–2025Cooled slowly as the post-pandemic rent surge worked through existing leases.
Shelter Inflation data tables
Average by decade
| Decade | Average | High | Low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020s (so far) | 4.4% | 8.2% | 1.5% |
| 2010s | 2.5% | 3.6% | −0.7% |
| 2000s | 2.9% | 4.3% | 0.3% |
| 1990s | 3.5% | 6.2% | 2.5% |
| 1980s | 6.9% | 20.9% | 0.6% |
| 1970s | 7.8% | 17.5% | 2.7% |
| 1960s | 2.8% | 9.1% | 0.4% |
| 1950s | 2.0% | 4.4% | 0.4% |
Last 12 months
| Period | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 3.2% | +0.2 pts |
| Aug 2026 | 3.0% | −0.1 pts |
| Jul 2026 | 3.2% | −0.1 pts |
| Jun 2026 | 3.3% | −0.1 pts |
| May 2026 | 3.4% | +0.1 pts |
| Apr 2026 | 3.3% | +0.3 pts |
| Mar 2026 | 3.0% | +0.1 pts |
| Feb 2026 | 3.0% | −0.1 pts |
| Jan 2026 | 3.0% | −0.1 pts |
| Dec 2025 | 3.2% | +0.1 pts |
| Nov 2025 | 3.0% | |
| Oct 2025 | n/a | not published |
Monthly values. Decade figures are averages of the monthly values in each decade. The complete history is available as a CSV file.
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Shelter Inflation: questions and answers
What is owners’ equivalent rent?
An estimate of how much homeowners would have to pay to rent their own home. The BLS derives it from rents of similar rental units. It is the biggest single item in the CPI.
Why doesn’t the CPI use house prices?
A home is partly an investment. The CPI measures the cost of consumption, so it prices the housing service, the rent, rather than the asset.
Why is CPI shelter so slow to change?
It averages rents across all leases, most of which reset only once a year. New-lease rents show changes many months earlier.
Where does the data on this chart come from?
From the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. ChartWidgets downloads the series (CUUR0000SAH1) from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database, and checks for new releases every day. The last update was on November 1, 2026.