What the grocery inflation rate measures
The chart shows the 12-month change in the CPI index for food at home: groceries bought at supermarkets, convenience stores and other retailers for preparing at home. It covers cereals and bakery products, meats, poultry, fish and eggs, dairy, fruits and vegetables, non-alcoholic drinks and other foods. Restaurant meals are a separate index (“food away from home”) and are not included. Values are not seasonally adjusted.
How to read this chart
Grocery inflation is more volatile than core inflation but less volatile than energy. Above about 3% shoppers start to notice; the long-run average is near that level. Note that a falling line still means rising prices: when grocery inflation drops from 10% to 2%, prices keep going up, just more slowly. Actual declines in grocery prices are rare and usually brief.
The latest reading in context
- At 1.8%, the latest reading is below its 5-year average of 4.7% and below its 10-year average of 2.9%.
- Of all 944 monthly readings since January 1948, 38% were lower than today’s and 62% were higher.
- Direction: down 0.4 points over the past month; down 0.1 points over the past six months; down 0.9 points over the past year.
- The highest value on record is 23.4% (August 1973, 53 years ago); the lowest is −6.9% (July 1949, 77 years ago).
- The full history spans 12 US recessions, shaded grey on the chart.
Why it matters
Food is bought every week, so its prices weigh heavily on how people judge inflation and the economy. Lower-income households spend a much larger share of their budget on groceries, which makes food inflation one of the most regressive forms of price increase. It is also a channel through which energy, wages and global commodity markets reach consumers.
What moves the grocery inflation rate
- Farm commodity prices: grains, feed, cattle and dairy
- Diesel, fertilizer and packaging costs
- Wages in food processing, trucking and retail
- Animal disease and weather, such as bird flu or drought
- The dollar and import tariffs on foods the US buys abroad
Key moments in its history
- 1973–1974Rose about 20% in a year after crop failures and the oil shock.
- 1979–1980Ran near 10% during the Great Inflation.
- 2016Fell slightly over the year, a rare decline.
- Aug 2022Reached 13.5%, the highest since 1979.
Grocery Inflation (Food at Home) data tables
Average by decade
| Decade | Average | High | Low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020s (so far) | 4.3% | 13.5% | 0.7% |
| 2010s | 1.2% | 6.3% | −2.3% |
| 2000s | 2.8% | 7.6% | −2.9% |
| 1990s | 2.8% | 8.3% | −0.9% |
| 1980s | 4.3% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| 1970s | 8.1% | 23.4% | −0.8% |
| 1960s | 2.0% | 7.3% | −1.9% |
| 1950s | 1.6% | 15.8% | −4.4% |
| 1940s | 2.3% | 13.9% | −6.9% |
Last 12 months
| Period | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 1.8% | −0.4 pts |
| Aug 2026 | 2.2% | −0.5 pts |
| Jul 2026 | 2.7% | −0.1 pts |
| Jun 2026 | 2.7% | 0.0 pts |
| May 2026 | 2.7% | −0.2 pts |
| Apr 2026 | 2.9% | +1.0 pts |
| Mar 2026 | 1.9% | −0.5 pts |
| Feb 2026 | 2.4% | +0.4 pts |
| Jan 2026 | 2.1% | −0.3 pts |
| Dec 2025 | 2.4% | +0.4 pts |
| Nov 2025 | 1.9% | |
| Oct 2025 | n/a | not published |
Monthly values. Decade figures are averages of the monthly values in each decade. The complete history is available as a CSV file.
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Grocery Inflation (Food at Home): questions and answers
What is the difference between food at home and food away from home?
Food at home is groceries. Food away from home covers restaurants, takeout and cafeterias, where labor and rent make up a much larger share of the price.
Why did grocery prices jump in 2022?
Higher costs for energy, fertilizer, feed, transport and labor arrived at the same time as strong demand, the war in Ukraine disrupted grain markets and bird flu cut egg supplies.
Will grocery prices go back down?
Individual items often do, as eggs did in 2023. The overall level rarely falls; usually it simply rises more slowly.
Where does the data on this chart come from?
From the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. ChartWidgets downloads the series (CUUR0000SAF11) from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database, and checks for new releases every day. The last update was on November 1, 2026.