What the US debt-to-GDP ratio measures
Total federal public debt outstanding divided by gross domestic product, expressed as a percentage, each quarter since 1966. The debt figure comes from the Treasury Department and includes both debt held by the public and debt held by federal trust funds such as Social Security; GDP comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. FRED calculates the ratio using an annualized quarterly GDP.
How to read this chart
The ratio fell through the 1970s as inflation and growth outpaced borrowing, reaching a low near 31% around 1981. It then rose in the 1980s, dipped with the budget surpluses of the late 1990s, and climbed steeply after the 2008 financial crisis. The spike in 2020 came from both sides at once: emergency borrowing raised the debt while the shutdowns shrank GDP. Strong nominal growth brought it down somewhat afterwards.
The latest reading in context
- At 121.2%, the latest reading is above its 5-year average of 119.3% and above its 10-year average of 114.3%.
- That is higher than 97% of all quarterly readings since Q1 1966 – near the top of its historical range.
- Direction: down 1.2 points over the past quarter; down 1.2 points over the past six months; up 3.0 points over the past year.
- The highest value on record is 132.7% (Q2 2020, 6 years ago); the lowest is 30.6% (Q3 1981, 45 years ago).
- The full history spans 8 US recessions, shaded grey on the chart.
Why it matters
Debt relative to the economy is what determines whether it can be sustained, because GDP is the base of the taxes that service it. A rising ratio means more of future tax revenue will go to interest, leaving less for other priorities, and can push up long-term interest rates. Ratings agencies have cited the trajectory of US debt in their downgrades of the US credit rating.
What moves the US debt-to-GDP ratio
- Budget deficits, which add to the debt
- Nominal GDP growth, which enlarges the denominator: inflation lowers the ratio
- Recessions, which raise deficits and shrink GDP at the same time
- Interest rates on the debt
Key moments in its history
- 1946Total federal debt reached about 120% of GDP after World War II (before this chart begins).
- 1981Fell to about 31%, the lowest since the 1930s.
- Early 2010sPassed 100% after the financial crisis.
- Q2 2020Peaked near 133% as pandemic borrowing surged and GDP collapsed.
US Debt to GDP data tables
Average by decade
| Decade | Average | High | Low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020s (so far) | 120.1% | 132.7% | 106.8% |
| 2010s | 99.7% | 105.8% | 86.5% |
| 2000s | 61.9% | 84.0% | 54.0% |
| 1990s | 61.5% | 65.3% | 52.0% |
| 1980s | 40.6% | 51.4% | 30.6% |
| 1970s | 33.0% | 35.7% | 30.8% |
| 1960s | 37.8% | 40.3% | 35.0% |
Last 12 quarters
| Period | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 121.2% | −1.2 pts |
| Q1 2026 | 122.4% | 0.0 pts |
| Q4 2025 | 122.4% | +1.7 pts |
| Q3 2025 | 120.7% | +2.5 pts |
| Q2 2025 | 118.2% | −1.8 pts |
| Q1 2025 | 120.0% | −1.0 pts |
| Q4 2024 | 121.0% | +1.1 pts |
| Q3 2024 | 119.9% | +0.8 pts |
| Q2 2024 | 119.2% | −1.0 pts |
| Q1 2024 | 120.1% | +0.7 pts |
| Q4 2023 | 119.5% | +1.3 pts |
| Q3 2023 | 118.2% | +0.8 pts |
Quarterly values. Decade figures are averages of the quarterly values in each decade. The complete history is available as a CSV file.
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US Debt to GDP: questions and answers
What is a dangerous level of debt to GDP?
There is no fixed threshold. Countries borrowing in their own currency, such as the US and Japan, have sustained high ratios. What matters most is whether the ratio keeps rising and whether interest costs grow faster than the economy.
Why do some sources show a lower debt-to-GDP ratio?
Many forecasts, including the Congressional Budget Office's, use debt held by the public, which leaves out money the government owes its own trust funds. That ratio is roughly 20 to 25 points lower than the total shown here.
How can the debt-to-GDP ratio fall?
Through budget surpluses, faster economic growth, or inflation, which raises nominal GDP faster than the existing debt.
Where does the data on this chart come from?
From the U.S. Department of the Treasury. ChartWidgets downloads the series (GFDEGDQ188S) from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database, and checks for new releases every day. The last update was on November 1, 2026.