What the months’ supply of new homes measures
Months’ supply is the number of new single-family homes for sale at the end of the month divided by the monthly sales pace. It answers a simple question: how many months would it take to sell the current inventory if nothing new were built? The inventory includes homes completed, under construction and not yet started. The data is from the Census Bureau’s new residential sales survey, seasonally adjusted.
How to read this chart
About six months is usually seen as a balanced market. Below that, buyers compete for scarce homes and prices tend to rise; well above it, builders have too many unsold homes and cut prices or add incentives. Because the ratio has sales in the denominator, it can jump when sales drop even if inventory hasn’t changed.
The latest reading in context
- At 8.4 months, the latest reading is above its 5-year average of 8.3 months and above its 10-year average of 6.9 months.
- Of all 765 monthly readings since January 1963, 87% were lower than today’s and 12% were higher.
- Direction: down 0.1 months over the past month; down 0.3 months over the past six months; up 0.2 months over the past year.
- The highest value on record is 12.2 months (January 2009, 17 years ago); the lowest is 3.3 months (October 2020, 6 years ago).
- The full history spans 8 US recessions, shaded grey on the chart.
Why it matters
Builders decide how many homes to start based on how quickly their inventory sells. When months’ supply climbs, housing starts usually fall a few months later, with consequences for construction jobs and the wider economy. It is also a guide to where new home prices are heading.
What moves the months’ supply of new homes
- The pace of new home sales
- Builders’ starts, which add to inventory
- Mortgage rates and affordability
- Completed homes left unsold, the costliest kind of inventory for builders
Key moments in its history
- 2005Fell to about 4 months at the top of the housing boom.
- Early 2009Rose above 12 months as sales collapsed.
- 2020Dropped to about 3.5 months, among the tightest on record, as pandemic demand surged.
- 2022–2025Rose to 8–10 months as builders kept finishing homes while high mortgage rates slowed sales.
New Home Supply (Months' Supply) data tables
Average by decade
| Decade | Average | High | Low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020s (so far) | 7.4 months | 10.3 months | 3.3 months |
| 2010s | 5.7 months | 9.3 months | 4.0 months |
| 2000s | 5.9 months | 12.2 months | 3.5 months |
| 1990s | 5.6 months | 9.4 months | 3.5 months |
| 1980s | 6.9 months | 11.6 months | 4.7 months |
| 1970s | 6.7 months | 10.4 months | 4.0 months |
| 1960s | 5.4 months | 7.2 months | 4.1 months |
Last 12 months
| Period | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 8.4 months | −0.1 months |
| Aug 2026 | 8.5 months | −0.4 months |
| Jul 2026 | 8.9 months | +0.4 months |
| Jun 2026 | 8.5 months | −0.7 months |
| May 2026 | 9.2 months | +0.2 months |
| Apr 2026 | 9.0 months | +0.3 months |
| Mar 2026 | 8.7 months | −0.6 months |
| Feb 2026 | 9.3 months | −0.6 months |
| Jan 2026 | 9.9 months | +2.0 months |
| Dec 2025 | 7.9 months | +0.2 months |
| Nov 2025 | 7.7 months | −1.3 months |
| Oct 2025 | 9.0 months | +0.8 months |
Monthly values. Decade figures are averages of the monthly values in each decade. The complete history is available as a CSV file.
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New Home Supply (Months' Supply): questions and answers
What is a normal months’ supply?
Around six months is commonly considered balanced for new homes. Lower favors sellers, higher favors buyers.
Does this include existing homes?
No. It covers only newly built homes. Existing homes have their own inventory measure, which has been much tighter in recent years.
Why can supply be high while prices still rise?
Inventory of new homes can grow while existing homes remain scarce, and builders often cut prices indirectly through mortgage buydowns and upgrades rather than list prices.
Where does the data on this chart come from?
From the U.S. Census Bureau. ChartWidgets downloads the series (MSACSR) from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database, and checks for new releases every day. The last update was on November 1, 2026.