{"v":1,"id":"recession-probability","t":"Recession Probability","st":"Chance of a US recession 12 months ahead, New York Fed yield-curve model","f":"m","dp":1,"u":"%","inv":true,"zero":true,"s":"1959-01","m":[10.472,9.762,10.581,10.865,7.698,11.439,10.601,12.517,19.047,21.927,23.913,27.849,24.252,20.947,13.978,12.456,12.35,5.803,6.46,7.298,9.061,6.54,6.801,6.53,6.448,8.639,8.731,7.384,8.024,6.876,5.834,6.088,5.695,6.302,7.699,7.728,8.72,9.236,10.325,11.512,10.661,10.674,11.827,10.939,10.459,10.561,11.795,13.108,14.091,12.994,12.454,12.073,12.998,13.021,15.374,17.97,17.671,18.372,19.438,19.264,18.579,19.097,18.086,16.748,17.396,17.888,17.223,17.898,18.247,19.119,21.115,24.491,23.682,25.763,25.763,25.967,24.924,23.094,24.095,23.12,23.951,25.022,24.265,26.92,31.881,28.405,26.252,29.462,29.261,25.567,27.675,26.966,37.509,41.139,36.742,35.446,35.696,30.734,26.001,17.102,10.174,7.802,14.263,13.454,15.4,14.883,13.553,18.112,21.659,20.728,21.049,27.326,28.646,28.732,28.756,25.628,26.951,27.935,27.6,32.036,36.171,32.201,27.495,32.418,27.514,31.186,41.543,41.765,33.278,32.487,37.459,39.908,37.792,32.41,24.793,16.772,14.158,12.814,14.748,13.175,11.091,9.297,7.657,7.873,5.465,2.254,2.538,4.254,2.918,5.764,10.032,6.839,8.475,8.197,7.031,4.58,1.736,1.04,2.506,2.028,2.153,3.099,3.433,3.16,4.916,5.984,8.027,10.328,13.518,13.768,20.865,25.041,23.55,42.031,57.942,68.136,66.022,45.561,63.055,52.926,55.119,38.756,54.631,56.906,52.501,44.723,29.556,60.299,36.61,25.649,30.563,28.664,11.534,5.139,3.191,1.828,1.275,2.094,5.059,4.958,4.636,3.575,1.958,1.983,1.166,1.092,1.476,1.535,1.569,2.338,1.839,1.745,2.092,2.136,1.959,1.974,1.799,1.47,1.165,1.219,2.109,3.017,3.609,5.004,8.149,10.071,8.768,7.427,8.527,7.955,6.419,5.59,5.079,6.753,7.747,10.932,23.481,22.101,32.956,39.271,44.133,43.338,47.102,45.06,47.314,41.2,44.96,50.448,62.586,75.32,70.0,80.498,71.658,55.643,93.834,83.404,8.873,1.769,4.083,5.919,14.634,38.677,71.528,95.405,93.7,83.601,51.426,46.348,92.677,77.619,65.508,64.433,33.271,13.02,3.27,1.978,5.102,23.856,18.425,18.622,12.489,9.315,3.115,0.095,0.08,0.836,2.716,2.249,2.234,2.247,4.348,4.131,4.124,5.136,3.816,2.904,2.29,1.503,1.449,1.738,1.89,1.985,1.916,1.566,0.535,0.439,1.004,4.62,5.22,3.425,1.361,0.566,0.394,0.824,0.71,0.521,0.607,0.767,0.749,0.807,0.7,0.976,2.325,3.964,4.177,7.679,11.962,11.421,8.01,7.757,8.746,7.044,3.139,3.089,5.031,7.571,6.924,6.897,6.897,2.632,1.078,1.544,1.474,1.61,1.014,0.518,0.741,0.683,1.264,2.043,1.701,1.381,1.373,2.472,3.045,3.742,6.885,9.728,13.029,15.557,19.315,22.881,25.191,25.186,26.975,33.218,32.641,31.084,25.969,27.299,31.498,30.754,23.258,20.377,21.264,15.607,15.582,20.011,18.186,11.528,8.89,8.59,10.92,10.615,5.496,5.134,3.465,2.595,1.838,1.583,1.635,1.939,2.381,1.987,1.162,0.861,0.585,0.356,0.361,0.227,0.212,0.291,0.267,0.368,0.331,0.215,0.214,0.312,0.279,0.464,0.795,0.701,0.729,1.016,1.239,1.479,2.176,2.535,1.583,1.367,1.235,1.358,0.892,0.521,0.835,0.958,0.953,1.362,1.206,1.336,1.655,3.352,4.095,6.631,8.701,9.281,14.958,18.968,16.312,12.97,15.306,17.823,21.193,21.027,19.497,14.167,10.054,7.536,6.221,5.502,6.261,7.305,6.088,7.732,11.739,9.169,7.655,9.003,7.696,6.187,6.71,7.529,11.749,11.921,10.618,13.136,18.059,19.61,22.251,22.668,20.046,18.773,19.497,21.83,22.191,23.291,27.945,20.225,23.316,26.511,24.047,20.714,16.803,15.179,13.161,9.667,10.671,10.982,10.728,10.693,14.59,12.992,9.884,14.736,21.453,26.118,20.083,24.525,31.584,39.972,38.413,42.706,44.77,46.324,32.608,27.741,22.366,10.051,5.475,5.307,5.736,6.624,3.425,2.107,1.158,0.384,0.39,0.566,0.325,0.318,0.363,0.526,0.833,1.441,2.665,2.226,1.058,1.022,0.954,1.226,1.329,1.037,1.767,2.021,0.669,0.308,0.425,0.394,0.394,0.394,0.474,0.591,0.931,0.366,0.209,0.337,0.578,1.104,1.857,2.308,3.215,3.612,4.453,6.273,5.359,6.894,9.374,12.615,13.66,15.799,16.408,17.032,18.612,20.005,28.079,29.089,27.652,24.041,24.131,25.589,29.524,34.508,34.604,37.07,40.728,39.417,37.847,40.08,41.713,36.784,32.002,22.123,28.546,22.215,19.13,19.136,14.822,11.732,13.063,6.266,2.595,2.107,3.045,2.685,2.163,2.958,1.611,0.596,0.408,2.038,2.043,1.549,1.45,1.115,0.62,0.278,0.378,0.35,0.455,0.422,0.398,0.277,0.215,0.257,0.257,0.207,0.472,0.653,0.975,1.619,1.724,1.981,1.424,0.577,0.49,0.33,0.43,0.363,0.596,0.805,0.805,2.406,3.752,2.996,3.599,3.752,3.911,4.249,3.176,3.757,5.316,6.668,7.527,6.269,6.04,5.741,6.426,5.738,4.481,4.249,4.306,5.382,4.188,2.517,1.615,1.248,1.075,1.54,1.355,1.006,1.022,1.332,1.311,1.289,1.64,1.564,1.692,2.038,1.692,2.406,2.3,2.788,4.418,3.805,3.551,4.019,2.787,2.199,2.371,3.13,2.911,3.357,2.959,3.565,4.558,7.202,6.137,6.284,6.608,8.105,9.851,9.207,8.397,7.558,5.493,3.74,4.06,4.173,5.183,7.014,7.828,9.869,9.454,9.986,10.327,9.035,10.954,11.459,10.415,9.142,10.837,11.211,11.118,12.506,13.599,14.614,14.505,14.12,15.768,21.346,23.622,24.619,27.08,27.489,29.623,32.88,31.479,37.927,34.805,29.036,24.61,23.624,25.204,30.73,18.466,19.456,19.107,18.602,19.981,18.928,18.59,16.623,15.239,14.362,12.189,9.591,6.262,5.955,6.106,7.081,9.065,9.485,8.459,6.663,6.828,7.704,6.044,6.141,5.492,3.71,4.106,5.926,17.627,25.15,23.067,26.027,38.056,47.308,57.133,54.49,57.771,68.221,70.854,67.305,66.01,60.826,56.16,46.111,51.839,62.936,61.473,58.313,58.313,50.04,51.818,55.828,56.286,61.789,57.055,42.045,33.563,29.397,23.175,27.007,30.22,30.449,28.301,28.715,28.947,28.847,27.417,26.509,25.051,20.361,18.776,20.727,18.799,17.627,14.976,16.062,15.187,13.883,12.759,12.416],"src":"Federal Reserve","fred":["GS10","TB3MS"],"rec":[["1960-05","1961-02"],["1970-01","1970-11"],["1973-12","1975-03"],["1980-02","1980-07"],["1981-08","1982-11"],["1990-08","1991-03"],["2001-04","2001-11"],["2008-01","2009-06"],["2020-03","2020-04"]],"updated":"2026-11-04"}